马斯格雷夫论坛学术讲座

第68期

讲座主题：Budgets Rolling and Year-End Spending in China

主讲人：梁平汉 教授

主持人：付文林 教授

时间：2023年10月31日（星期二）

地点：1号楼307会议室

主办单位：浙江财经大学地方财政研究院、浙江财经大学浙商资本市场研究院

协办单位：浙江财经大学财政税务学院

主讲人简介：梁平汉，中山大学政治与公共管理学院教授、博士生导师，中山大学“逸仙学者”,牛津大学“太古”高级访问学者《产业经济评论》执行副主编，中国数量经济学会理事，中国运筹学会博弈论分会理事。主要研究地方政府行为、行为与实验经济学博弈论、政商关系等。在Economic Journal, Games and Economic Behavior,《经济研究》《管理世界》等国内外一流期刊发表论文数十篇，主持国家社科基金重点项目、国家自科基金面上项目，青年项目等，研究成果被《新华文摘》和人大复印报刊资料全文转载多次,获霍英东基金会优秀青年教师奖,教育部、四川省、重庆市等部省级奖励多项。

摘要：Using the Budget Law reform in China as a quasi-natural experiment, this paper examines the causal impact of Use-it-or-lose-it budget rules on local governments year-end spending spikes. We compile a comprehensive dataset of public procurement contracts during 2014-2021, and develop a novel method to measure the quality of contract. We show the substantial surges in procurement contracts in the end of the year, and these contracts are more likely of low quality. The difference-in-difference model indicates that after the reform, local governments award 25.8% more procurement contracts, and double spending on procurement in the last month of the year. The year-end spending surges concentrate on goods and construction projects procurement, contracts with high values, and favor local suppliers. We suggest the late arrival of funds under the rigid hierarchical allocation of fiscal funds underlies this distortion.